Top-Level Takeaways

• Markets have flipped from pricing near-certain Fed rate cuts to pricing zero cuts and a greater than 50% chance of hikes by year-end.
• The upcoming June FOMC meeting should include a healthy debate on the current inflation trend, including the potential secondary effects of the oil spike and tariffs.
• Beyond near-term rate moves, the bigger question is Warsh’s appetite for structural reform, which requires building consensus across the FOMC, markets, and Congress.

The Iran conflict has reshaped the narrative in interest rate markets. Since February 27, just before the United States and Israel launched joint strikes, front-end Treasury yields have climbed more than 60 basis points.

Back in February, worries over private credit and AI disruption dominated, fueling speculation of broader contagion to the U.S. economy. But March’s surge in oil prices triggered a global bond sell-off. The move in Treasury yields tracked a sharp repricing of Fed expectations: in late February, markets priced a 96% probability of cuts by the end of 2026, including a 78% chance of two or more cuts. By June 1, that had flipped to a 0% probability of any cut this year and a greater than 50% chance of one or more hikes.

This ultimately comes back to an inflation conversation. The oil spike could prove a temporary supply shock with no lasting impact on growth or inflation trends — provided the conflict resolves quickly and prices fall. The longer energy prices stay elevated, the more likely the effects spread beyond the pump. April’s PPI, for instance, showed an 8.1% jump in trucking freight rates. If that persists, firms will likely raise goods prices to protect margins.

The hawks have ready counterarguments. Higher oil prices aren’t yet captured in a trimmed measure, but they can eventually bleed into the middle 45% of components — as can the secondary effects of steel and aluminum tariffs across manufacturing. Another factor likely still fresh in hawkish memory: the trimmed-mean index lagged core PCE by nearly 2 percentage points in late 2021, just before the Fed had to drop the hammer with 525 basis points of hikes.

An end to the conflict, including a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, should bring sharp relief in oil prices and ease some — but not all — of these worries. Several Fed officials flagged lingering inflation concerns even before the first missile flew. There’s also the risk of repeated “one-off” shocks becoming entrenched in expectations, a far thornier problem for policymakers.

Visit ALM First to read more about the latest economic data and overall monthly market trends.

Jason Haley joined ALM First in 2008 and is the firm’s chief investment officer. He heads ALM First’s Investment Management Group (IMG), which is responsible for leading the investment process and investment theme development. Haley also oversees all capital markets activities, including portfolio management, trading, market research and commentary, and execution of hedging and funding strategies for the firm’s depository clients. He holds an MBA with a concentration in finance and a BBA with a concentration in marketing, both from The University of Mississippi.

Not an offer for investment advisory services. This content is provided for general educational information and market commentary purposes only.

The post Markets Flip From Pricing Cuts To 50% Chance Of Hikes appeared first on CreditUnions.com.

Top-Level Takeaways

• Equity markets hit new highs in April despite the ongoing Iran conflict and high fuel costs.
• The AI infrastructure buildout was a significant tailwind for first quarter GDP growth, but all other business investment has been subdued.
• Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Fed chair moved past an important hurdle last week; Jerome Powell will remain on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for the time being.

The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high on April 30 despite the ongoing conflict with Iran and oil prices exceeding $100. The large-cap equity benchmark generated a 10.5% total return in April, a 2x reversal of its March slump. This might seem like irrational exuberance on the part of investors with gas prices on a steady rise, but there are ample tailwinds for the U.S. economy, most notably the massive digital infrastructure buildout occurring as part of the artificial intelligence (AI) sprint.

The latter was clear in the first quarter GDP report. Business investment contributed 1.5 percentage points to the top-line GDP growth rate of 2% quarter-over-quarter (annualized), and it was entirely driven by AI infrastructure spending. In real nominal terms, business investment rose $92.6 billion in the first quarter, including an increase of $110 billion in information processing equipment and software. Yes, this means all other investment was down $17.4 billion.

Lower non-AI business investment ties into another of our 2026 economic themes. Heading into the pivotal midterm elections, we expected things to be quieter on the policy and political front. Initially, we thought this would potentially spark broader business investment that had been lacking over the prior year amid heightened uncertainty (tariffs, immigration, etc.).
Although things have been quieter regarding trade and immigration, the Iran conflict and consequential rise in oil prices have introduced a new layer of uncertainty for business investment outside of the AI buildout. If we’re doing early scoring, that first theme would appear to be a fail, but the year’s not over yet.

Visit ALM First to read more about the latest economic data and overall monthly market trends.

Jason Haley joined ALM First in 2008 and is the firm’s chief investment officer. He heads ALM First’s Investment Management Group (IMG), which is responsible for leading the investment process and investment theme development. Haley also oversees all capital markets activities, including portfolio management, trading, market research and commentary, and execution of hedging and funding strategies for the firm’s depository clients. He holds an MBA with a concentration in finance and a BBA with a concentration in marketing, both from The University of Mississippi.

Not an offer for investment advisory services. This content is provided for general educational information and market commentary purposes only.

The post New Highs For Equity Markets Despite Iran And Oil Prices appeared first on CreditUnions.com.

Every year, the Callahan team travels the country convening credit union leaders. Inevitably, one question comes up again and again: What are you hearing? Where are other executives focused right now?

It is a fair question. Change is constant, and leaders want to understand how peers are navigating it. Drawing on hundreds of strategic planning sessions, roundtables, and conversations with credit union executives, Callahan has identified six clear priorities guiding credit unions’ work in 2026.

These are not predictions. They are reflections of where executive teams are already investing their time, energy, and attention.

1. Growth Mindset

More than any single strategy, executives are emphasizing a growth mindset. This shows up in how leaders think about expansion, innovation, and relevance.

Organic growth through deepening member relationships as well as attracting new members through branches and digital channels remains a major focus, particularly as competition intensifies. Inorganic strategies such as mergers and indirect lending continue to play a role, too. Physical expansion and new-market entry is also back in the conversation, with many credit unions planning new branches in 2026. Increasingly, digital transformation ties these efforts together, reinforcing growth as both a mindset and a long-term discipline. ,

2. Tech Focus

Technology is no longer a differentiator on its own. Executives recognize that without continued advancement, credit unions risk falling behind.

We are hearing consistent focus on fintech partnerships, AI enablement, digital experience optimization, data analytics, and cybersecurity. The challenge is not in deciding whether to invest but in determining where technology creates real value for members and the organization.

3. People First

As the workforce evolves, leadership teams are placing renewed emphasis on succession planning and leadership development. Many credit unions are asking hard questions about who will lead next and how they are preparing those leaders today. Strong strategy requires strong leadership, and executives are investing accordingly, knowing that talent and culture remain critical long-term advantages.

4. Money Movement

Payments and money movement are rising quickly on executive agendas. At recent roundtables, topics like real-time payments and stablecoin generated significant interest. The underlying question is simple but important: how can credit unions help members move money quickly, securely, and with minimal friction in an expanding payments landscape? At stake is whether credit unions remain the primary hub for how and where members move their money.

5. Community Development

Leaders are viewing community development less as a set of programs and more as a strategic imperative. Executives are focused on understanding evolving community needs, forming meaningful partnerships, and aligning resources where they can make the greatest impact. The goal is not just to participate in the community, it’s to become indispensable to the communities credit unions serve.

6. Mission/Emotion

The final priority is perhaps the hardest to define; it’s also one of the most powerful.

Mission emotion is about leading with purpose and telling a clear story about impact. Executives are asking how they communicate their “why” in a way that resonates with members, employees, and communities. Just as important, they are questioning how to measure success and looking beyond traditional metrics to better capture the real value credit unions create.

Taken together, these six priorities point to an industry that is asking smarter questions and thinking more intentionally about the future. Credit unions are connecting strategy, performance, and purpose in new ways — and that is encouraging to see.

As always, these insights are shaped by the conversations we are fortunate to take part in every day. Watch for future articles on CreditUnions.com that delve deeper into these topics as well as continued examination in our webinars, roundtables, speaking engagements, and more. We look forward to continuing the dialogue and learning from the leaders who are shaping what comes next for our industry.

No matter where you are on your journey, Callahan’s facilitators can help. Whether your credit union is navigating one or many of these priorities, Callahan can facilitate the conversation and empower your stakeholders with the data and insights to drive you forward. With more than 180 years of collective experience, we provide the guidance and support you need to ensure your team is aligned, your strategy is clear, and your goals are within reach. Learn more today.

The post 6 Credit Union Executive Priorities For 2026 appeared first on CreditUnions.com.

Top-Level Takeaways

• Financial markets faced fresh risks in March as the military action in the Middle East sent oil prices sharply higher.
• Fixed income credit was less reactive to the Iran conflict for much of March, but a prolonged conflict could threaten economic growth and increase credit risks.
• With private credit worries continuing to make headlines, we lay out a general framework for evaluating alternative investments.

March was a fresh reminder of how quickly the narrative can change in financial markets.

At the end of February, fed funds futures were priced for 60 basis points of rate cuts by the Fed in 2026. By the end of March, those projected rate cuts effectively disappeared. This coincided with a sharp increase in Treasury yields across the curve as oil prices surged higher than $100 per barrel amid the ongoing military conflict in the Middle East, which has greatly constricted the flow of energy and other materials through the critical Strait of Hormuz.

For much of March, the concern was inflation risk from a supply shock to energy prices, but by the end of the month, the bond market shifted somewhat to economic growth worries via demand destruction.

It has been a fluid situation, and the most pressing questions are:
• How long will this conflict last?
• How long will the Strait of Hormuz remain closed?

The answers to these questions will impact the ultimate economic costs.

Tracking a measure of market inflation expectations via TIPS breakeven yields, all three measures (1-year, 2-year and 5-year) are higher over the last month, but the market clearly views any inflation impact as a more short-lived phenomenon given the sharper run-up in the 1-year breakeven yield. This also underscores the idea of a prolonged oil price shock weighing on global economic growth, which is deflationary by nature.

On March 31, markets received some relief when the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump was considering ending U.S. military involvement even if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed. On April 1, President Trump addressed the nation and said the war in Iran is “very close” to completion while also threatening escalation. The initial reaction from financial markets was higher oil prices and lower stock prices.

Visit ALM First to read more about the latest economic data and overall monthly market trends.

Jason Haley joined ALM First in 2008 and is the firm’s chief investment officer. He heads ALM First’s Investment Management Group (IMG), which is responsible for leading the investment process and investment theme development. Haley also oversees all capital markets activities, including portfolio management, trading, market research and commentary, and execution of hedging and funding strategies for the firm’s depository clients. He holds an MBA with a concentration in finance and a BBA with a concentration in marketing, both from The University of Mississippi.

Not an offer for investment advisory services. This content is provided for general educational information and market commentary purposes only.

The post Fresh Risks For Financial Markets appeared first on CreditUnions.com.

The National Credit Union Administration’s final succession planning rule (12 CFR Parts 701 and 741, RIN 3133-AF42) went into effect on Jan. 1, 2026. The rule requires both federal credit unions and federally insured, state-chartered credit unions to establish written succession plans.

This article describes the key things credit union leaders need to know to comply with the letter of the new rule. For our thoughts about the opportunity available to credit unions that choose to be more strategic about their compliance efforts, read, “The Opportunity For Credit Unions In NCUA’s New Succession Planning Rule.”

What The New Succession Planning Rule Says

NCUA’s newly effective succession planning rule requires federal and federally insured, state-chartered credit unions to establish a board-approved, written succession plan consistent with their size, complexity, and risk of operations. Credit unions can leverage this NCUA video series for further clarification on what is required.

The agency has also provided a succession planning template for smaller credit unions that we find too limited to be of much strategic value. We offer suggestions in the next section for how to deliver a right-sized plan that stays strategic.

Credit unions with less than $100 million in assets and minority depository institutions of all sizes may also be eligible for assistance in a variety of areas, including succession planning, through NCUA’s Small Credit Union and Minority Depository Institution Support Program.

The rule sets forth that these credit union jobs, or their equivalents, must be included in the written succession plan, at a minimum:

• • Members of the board of directors.
  • “Management officials” and “assistant management officials,” as those terms are defined in Appendix A of the rule, if provided for in the federal credit union’s bylaws, and, to the extent not already covered, the senior executive officers identified in § 701.14(b)(2).
  • Any other personnel the board of directors deems critical given the federal credit union’s size, complexity, or risk of operations. This includes new positions that may be required due to planned changes in operations, supervisory landscape, or corporate structure.

As a best practice, we also recommend credit unions include the members of their audit and supervisory committees in succession planning.

The rule requires each credit union’s succession plan to include the following information:

• • The title for each covered position and the date the incumbent’s term expires (if serving in a term-limited capacity) or other anticipated vacancy date, if known (such as the incumbent’s retirement eligibility date or announced departure date).
  • The credit union’s plan for permanently filling vacancies for each of the positions.
  • The strategy for recruiting candidates with the potential to assume each of the positions, including how the selection and diversity of skills among the employees covered by the succession plan, collectively and individually, promotes the safe and sound operation of the credit union.

The rule also requires that boards of directors review the succession plan every two years and that new board members review and become knowledgeable about the plan within six months of becoming a director.

In the event circumstances require a substantial deviation from the board-approved plan, management and/or the board have the flexibility under the new rule to do what they deem necessary at the time, consistent with their fiduciary duties and legal responsibilities. While this action doesn’t have to be documented in the board’s meeting minutes, it should be reported to the board as soon as possible.

Don’t Forget To Be Strategic

We put together this short guide to the rule to help you with basic compliance with NCUA’s new succession planning rule. However, We urge you to take advantage of the strategic opportunity available to you as you comply with NCUA’s new succession planning rule. Link your succession plan to your strategic plan, and boost your retention with thoughtful compensation and appropriate SERPs that make your credit union a place where top talent wants to work.

For guidance on how to do this, read “The Opportunity For Credit Unions In NCUA’s New Succession Planning Rule.”

CEO and lead consultant of Quantum Governance, L3C, a Callahan company, Jennie Boden brings more than 30 years of experience in governance, strategy, leadership, and development to the field. Jennie leads a team of consultants, topical specialists, and other experts to meet the governance and strategic needs of the firm’s clients. For nearly a decade, Jennie has been the catalyst for developing countless tools, products, and services, as well as alliances with the firm’s strategic partners. 

Executive benefits consultant & founder of PARC Street Group, Christopher J. Jones, ChFC, CLU, provides leadership across the firm alongside Bruce D. Smith. Known for his analytical mindset and mathematical precision, Chris works closely with credit unions to design Supplemental Executive Retirement Plans (SERPs) that are not only durable and compliant but also grounded in data that supports long-term performance. With more than three decades in financial services, he has built a reputation for ensuring that every plan rests on solid numbers and delivers on its promise to executives and boards.

The post A Short Guide To Compliance With The New Succession Planning Rule appeared first on CreditUnions.com.

Langley Federal Credit Union ($5.BB, Newport New, VA) just received a 2026 Exceptional Workplace Award, recognizing organizations with the highest levels of employee engagement worldwide. Only 78 organizations earned it this year, representing roughly 4% of those evaluated. We are proud of that recognition. But the award is not the story. The story is about what it took to get there.

One year ago, Langley was already in the top 10% of all organizations measured for employee engagement. That is not a bad place to be. Most leaders would call that a win and move on. We did not. We asked a harder question: What would it take to be truly exceptional?

The answer was not another event. It was not a new perk or a bigger budget for employee appreciation. It was intentionality.

We got intentional about engagement the way you get intentional about any strategic priority. We named it. We trained for it. We measured it. We held our managers accountable for it. And we did not let it become a once-a-year survey exercise. We made it a daily practice.

Here is what that looked like in practice.

We started with purpose. Not a purpose statement written in the executive offices and handed down to the organization. We went to our people and we listened. What emerged from those conversations became the foundation of who we are: Investing in People for a Brighter Future. Those words did not come from a leadership retreat or a consulting firm. They came from the people who live them every day. That is not a small thing. When employees help define the purpose of an organization, they do not just understand it. They own it. And ownership is the beginning of engagement.

We invested in our managers. Managers are the single greatest driver of engagement in any organization. Not HR. Not the CEO. The direct manager. When an employee feels seen, supported, and developed, that experience almost always traces back to their relationship with their immediate leader. We trained our managers to have better conversations. Real ones. Not check-the-box one-on-ones, but genuine dialogue about what their people needed, what was getting in their way, and how they could grow.

We focused on communication. Not announcements. Communication. There is a difference. Announcements flow in one direction. Communication is a two-way exchange. We worked to create an environment where employees could speak up, provide input, and trust that their voices would be heard. That trust does not come from a suggestion box. It comes from consistent follow-through over time.

We measured what mattered. There is a phrase that has proven itself true in every high-performing organization: what you measure gets done. When we began tracking engagement at the team level and holding leaders responsible for those results, behavior changed. Not because we demanded it. Because leaders could see it, respond to it, and take ownership of it.

When you put all of that together, something shifts. And the data confirms it.

Research shows highly engaged organizations see 18% higher productivity, 78% lower absenteeism, and 21% lower turnover compared to their peers. They also generate 23% higher profitability. These are not soft numbers. They are bottom-line results that directly affect your ability to serve your customers, retain your talent, and sustain your mission.

For Langley, that mission is serving our members. Engaged employees deliver better member service because they care about their work. That connection between employee experience and member experience is not a theory. It is a pattern we see every day.

We have always been a great place to work. We celebrate our people. We invest in their development and their families. But being a great place to work and being an engaged workplace are not the same thing. Great workplaces keep people comfortable. Engaged workplaces keep people connected. Connected to purpose. Connected to one another. Connected to the people they serve.

That connection is what moved us from the top 10% to the top 2%.

If you lead an organization, here is the honest takeaway. You cannot “event” your way to engagement. You cannot celebrate your way there either. Engagement is built in the daily interactions between a manager and their team. It is built in cultures where feedback flows freely and accountability runs in both directions. It is built when leaders stop treating engagement as an annual survey and start treating it as a leadership responsibility.

And sometimes, it is built in the moment you hand the microphone to your people and actually listen to what they say.

That is how you build engagement. And that is how Investing in People for a Brighter Future became more than a tagline. It became the truth of who we are.

Langley Federal Credit Union is honored to be recognized as an exceptional workplace. We are more honored by what the journey taught us about our people and what is possible when you commit to leading them well.

Jerome Fowlkes is chief impact officer at Langley Federal Credit Union.

The post Engagement Is Not A Perk. It Is A Strategy. appeared first on CreditUnions.com.

Case in point: The National Credit Union Administration’s final succession planning rule (12 CFR Parts 701 and 741, RIN 3133-AF42) went into effect on Jan. 1, 2026. The rule requires both federal credit unions and federally insured, state-chartered credit unions to establish written succession plans.

It can be tempting to look at a new regulation as simply an addition to the compliance burden credit unions face as government-insured, and therefore regulated, financial institutions. But we urge you to look at this regulation as an opportunity — and to undertake complying with it as a strategic imperative, not just a regulatory one. Credit unions that make their succession plans serve their strategy will reap the benefits of stronger governance and more effective C-suite leadership.

The NCUA has already published a lot of information about the new rule, and basic compliance with the rule is straightforward. But getting the most out of your credit union’s succession plan means going beyond the basics. We encourage credit union leaders to focus on linking their succession plans to their strategic plans, ensuring that compliance means not just generating another policy document but rather creating a roadmap to the future.

This article will give you some ideas about how to create this link between your succession plan and your strategic plan and encourage you to put “teeth” into your efforts.

New Heights For Board And Executive Performance

The new rule, which was finalized in late 2024, recognized NCUA’s goal of ensuring credit unions plan for the transitions of board members and top leaders.

On the occasion of the rule’s passing, then-NCUA board chairman Todd Harper said, “We know that the failure to plan for management and key decision-maker transitions comes with a cost. The potential costs range from an unanticipated merger of a credit union or its failure when key personnel depart.”

Complying with the new rule is an opportunity to think strategically and not only prepare for planned succession but also be able to readily answer the question, “What would you do if your CEO or manager called your board chair on Friday night and said, ‘I’ve taken a new position. I am giving you notice that I’ll be leaving as soon as the terms of my contract allow’?” Taking time to consider what your credit union would do with an unexpected change in leadership points to the importance of strategic succession planning.

In all, it’s important to do more than check a box to fulfill this compliance requirement. Have conversations now about what skills are needed in your next C-suite executive or board member so everyone on your team will be aligned with the organization’s strategy, you can recruit and hire better, you can do a better job with board renewal, and you will be in a better position to face unexpected vacancies.

A number of assessments and other resources can help shape these sometimes difficult conversations. A third party is oftentimes necessary to ensure that strategic discussions about term limits and recruitment practices don’t devolve into personal attacks. Knowing your current board matrix, understanding where there are gaps or opportunities for growth, and how to take action are critical to your success. You don’t have to figure it all out by yourselves.

Succession planning for board members is clearly an area in which many credit unions have room for growth. A national study done by Quantum Governance, L3C, CUES, and The David and Sharon Johnston Centre for Corporate Governance Innovation, Rotman School of Management found that 45% of credit union leaders believe they are adequate or less than adequate at attracting people with the right skills to their board. In addition, the research found 57% of national respondents believe they are only adequate or less than adequate at regularly renewing their board’s membership. Credit unions of all sizes can benefit from case studies of credit unions having success evolving their succession planning and board renewal processes.

On the executive side, credit union succession planning is more effective when you have designed your executive compensation and benefits to attract and retain the right people. In other words, executive compensation and benefits, designed well, will make your succession plan a better retention tool.

The use of Supplemental Executive Retirement Plans (SERPs), for example, can help credit unions become an employer of choice for top talent. 2024 research published by NFP, an Aon Company, found that 82%of the 209 executive benefits decision-makers surveyed identified executive benefits as strategically important to their overall company success.

What Credit Union Leaders Can Do

As the new year continues to unfold, we suggest doing four things in response to the NCUA’s new succession planning rule:

1. 1. Shift to an opportunity mindset. Rather than see the new rule as an additional burden, look to gain every strategic benefit you can from your compliance efforts.
   2. Don’t check the box; do the work to be strategic. Filling out a cookie-cutter succession plan is tempting. But having the conversations with your leaders and team members to clarify what your organization needs most from its people will serve your organization and its members better in the long run.
   3. Recommit your credit union to outstanding governance and executive leadership. When you do this, you can’t help but work to make your succession plan strategic. With a solid succession plan in place, one you regularly review and update, you’ll move beyond compliance to effectively supporting your credit union’s future.
   4. Analyze your executive compensation once or twice a year. These check-ins are important to ensure your compensation programs are in line with your goals and the marketplace for talent.

We urge you to take advantage of the strategic opportunity available to you as you comply with NCUA’s new succession planning rule. Link your succession plan to your strategic plan, and boost your retention with thoughtful compensation and appropriate SERPs that make your credit union a place where top talent wants to work.

CEO and lead consultant of Quantum Governance, L3C, a Callahan company, Jennie Boden brings more than 30 years of experience in governance, strategy, leadership, and development to the field. Jennie leads a team of consultants, topical specialists, and other experts to meet the governance and strategic needs of the firm’s clients. For nearly a decade, Jennie has been the catalyst for developing countless tools, products, and services, as well as alliances with the firm’s strategic partners. 

Executive benefits consultant & founder of PARC Street Group, Christopher J. Jones, ChFC, CLU, provides leadership across the firm alongside Bruce D. Smith. Known for his analytical mindset and mathematical precision, Chris works closely with credit unions to design Supplemental Executive Retirement Plans (SERPs) that are not only durable and compliant but also grounded in data that supports long-term performance. With more than three decades in financial services, he has built a reputation for ensuring that every plan rests on solid numbers and delivers on its promise to executives and boards.

The post The Opportunity For Credit Unions In NCUA’s New Succession Planning Rule appeared first on CreditUnions.com.

Top-Level Takeaways

• Financial market jitters increased in February amid heightened AI disruption fears and geopolitical tensions.
• The U.S. and Israel launched a major military operation against Iran, sending oil prices and Treasury yields sharply higher.
• Speculation that AI advancements posed a threat to traditional software companies sparked fears in both equities and private credit.

Financial market jitters escalated in February, even as economic data releases remained generally encouraging.

Two issues have primarily driven market anxiety: AI disruption fears and geopolitical tensions. The latter came to fruition this past weekend when American and Israeli forces launched a major joint military campaign against Iran, reportedly killing much of the nation’s senior leadership.

The initial market reaction included sharply higher oil and natural gas prices, a selloff in equities, and higher global bond yields. The latter was attributable to inflation concerns from higher energy prices. The Strait of Hormuz, just off the coast of Iran, was effectively shut down, cutting off the distribution channel for 20% of the world’s daily oil and light natural gas consumption. It will likely take some time for the dust to settle and markets to get a better idea of the ultimate objectives and potential timeline for U.S. military operations.

Before the U.S. military action on Iran, risk markets had been reeling from worries that accelerating AI development, particularly agentic systems, could cause significant disruption to many white-collar industries, most notably the software as a service (SaaS) sector. The S&P 500 posted its first negative monthly return since last April amid tariff volatility, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index dropped 3.3% in February. The software and services sub-index of the S&P 500 produced a -10% return in February, illustrating the heightened SaaS concerns, and the index is down nearly 21% through the first two months of 2026.

Visit ALM First to read more about the latest economic data and overall monthly market trends.

Jason Haley joined ALM First in 2008 and is the firm’s chief investment officer. He heads ALM First’s Investment Management Group (IMG), which is responsible for leading the investment process and investment theme development. Haley also oversees all capital markets activities, including portfolio management, trading, market research and commentary, and execution of hedging and funding strategies for the firm’s depository clients. He holds an MBA with a concentration in finance and a BBA with a concentration in marketing, both from The University of Mississippi.

Not an offer for investment advisory services. This content is provided for general educational information and market commentary purposes only.

The post Financial Market Jitters Escalate appeared first on CreditUnions.com.

Top-Level Takeaways

• Financial markets responded to multiple noteworthy announcements in January, including the nomination of the next Fed chair.
• In an effort to lower mortgage rates, President Trump directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion of mortgage securities.
• President Trump also nominated Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, as the next Fed chair despite Warsh being considered more hawkish in the past.

The first month of 2026 included multiple announcements consequential for the bond market and financial markets as whole.

President Trump and his team proposed multiple policy efforts aimed at improving affordability ahead of the midterm elections later this year, including a one-year 10% cap on credit card interest rates, a ban on institutional homebuying, and a $200 billion mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchase program by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (FMs).

The credit card interest rate cap is perhaps the most controversial given the potential negative consequences on credit availability. However, market participants were relieved when President Trump suggested he would rely on Congress to pass a law to cap such rates, which is considered a less likely outcome.

On Jan. 8, Trump directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion of MBS with the ultimate objective of driving mortgage rates lower. The administration has provided limited details, but it’s worth noting that the FMs had been buying MBS for several months, most recently at a pace of around $16 billion per month, an annualized amount of nearly $200 billion. The most recent disclosures showed the FMs bought $24.6 billion in December.

Agency MBS spreads tightened on the news, with 30-year conventional coupons trading closest to a par dollar price (e.g., 30-year 4.5% and 5.0% pools) moving the most (10 to 15 basis points versus Treasuries). However, in a typical “buy the rumor, sell the fact” trade, spreads retraced approximately half of that move during the remainder of the month, particularly after Bill Pulte, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said there would be no increase to the total purchase program size of $200 billion.

Visit ALM First to read more about the latest economic data and overall monthly market trends.

Jason Haley joined ALM First in 2008 and is the firm’s chief investment officer. He heads ALM First’s Investment Management Group (IMG), which is responsible for leading the investment process and investment theme development. Haley also oversees all capital markets activities, including portfolio management, trading, market research and commentary, and execution of hedging and funding strategies for the firm’s depository clients. He holds an MBA with a concentration in finance and a BBA with a concentration in marketing, both from The University of Mississippi.

Not an offer for investment advisory services. This content is provided for general educational information and market commentary purposes only.

The post Markets React To Consequential Announcements appeared first on CreditUnions.com.

Based on a May 2025 Gallup survey, the proportion of Gen Z adults who are “thriving” declined five points year-over-year to 39%. It seems the outlook of this cohort — which accounts for roughly one-quarter of the world’s population — is growing more pessimistic as its members age. And as that pessimism grows, so, too, does financial nihilism.

What Is Financial Nihilism?

Financial nihilism is an economic and investment philosophy, coined by Demetri Kofinas, that believes systems and rules are rigged. Based in deep disillusionment, it detaches price from value when it comes to economic decision-making and turns value into something that is purely subjective.

Major shifts in the macroeconomy — like stagnated wages and the rising cost of housing, education, and raising a child — has not only dampened many younger people’s economic outlook but has caused many to give up entirely. Why work hard if buying a house or starting a family is financially unfeasible? Why save for a down payment, or retirement, when those goals are a scam perpetrated by established institutions and older generations?

This mindset encourages a world of meme coins, gambling, and a casino-like approach to the stock market.

How Financial Nihilism Impacts The Workplace

As Kyla Scanlon wrote in a December Wall Street Journal article, although every generation has faced obstacles, “upward mobility was always contingent on certain fundamentals: strong institutions, affordable education, accessible homeownership, and stable work.”

The oldest members of the Gen Z cohort have entered the labor force and have their whole careers ahead of them. They represent the households most likely to be impacted by weaknesses in economic stability, higher education finance, housing affordability, and labor market conditions. In the face of such instability, they dissociate.

Indeed, economic research out of Northwestern University has born this out. A model developed by two doctoral candidates there shows that when housing prices outstrip affordability, workers who do not own homes are more likely to disengage from their jobs, save less for the long, and turn toward higher-risk spending and investments.

Examining counties in which home prices have risen, researchers found renters who made at least $7,500 a month decreased their credit card spending, particularly on luxuries and non-necessities, presumably saving for a home. On the other hand, renters who did not make $7,500 a month actually increased their credit card spending.

The Northwestern research further found that renters with a net worth of less than $300,000 were less likely to put a premium on hard work. Those with a net worth above that threshold believe homeownership is within reach; therefore, they are more motivated to work and committed to saving.

How Can Credit Unions Combat Financial Nihilism?

As responsible fiduciaries of members’ money and bedrock institutions of community prosperity, credit unions have several ways to push back against financial nihilism. To combat such doom and gloom, or at least mitigate it, credit unions need to help younger members understand that the sun will rise tomorrow and the earth will continue to spin.

Reading, Writing, And Wealth Building

Helping members establish realistic but attainable financial goals can help them improve not only their monetary outlook but their personal one as well.

More U.S. states are mandating financial literacy courses for high school graduation, but making financial education resonate with the country’s youngest spenders and savers is no easy task. Three credit unions in Florida, Oregon, and Pennsylvania are responding with tailored approaches to equip students with essential financial skills. Read more about that in “3 Ways To Make Financial Education Stick” on CreditUnions.com.

Help With Housing

Plugging the hole in housing affordability is one way credit unions are furthering their community commitment, with cooperatives across the country supporting homeownership via loans to members as well as loans to local housing developers.

Washington State Employees has created a new role to tackle affordable housing at a systemic level. Read “What’s In A Name: Director Of Community Homeownership Development” on CreditUnions.com to learn more about that. Heritage Family is partnering with the City of Rutland and the Vermont Treasurer’s Office to support construction, renovation, and more. Read “From State Funds To Affordable Homes” today.

Smart Support

The average student loan balance on federal loans hovers around $40,000; however, a smaller group of borrowers hold significantly more. According to The Motley Fool, 60% of borrowers pay up to $300 a month and 20% are behind on their repayments.

Student loan refinancing and loan debt assistance is one way credit unions can make inroads with these borrowers and begin earning their trust as they work to build a stronger financial future. Bringing this piece of the loan portfolio into a broader assistance strategy can also help credit unions reach members who feel discouraged about their financial lot at the moment they most need support.

Beyond Budgets

Financial nihilism is the exact opposite of financial wellbeing, which is based in confidence, control, and peace of mind. If credit unions want to help people achieve financial wellbeing, they must meet them where they are, not just financially, but emotionally.

“If someone is stressed about money … they want reassurance,” says Chris Howard, a senior vice president at Callahan & Associates. “They want someone to listen. They want to feel seen, heard, and understood. Most of all, they want to know you care. People trust those they believe care about them.”

In practice, financial wellbeing means designing experiences that build confidence and a sense of safety, not just knowledge. Read more in “Financial Wellbeing Isn’t What You Think It Is.”

Despite the challenges financial nihilism presents, there is hope for the future. That Gallup survey in which 39% of Gen Z adults said they were thriving? A full 73% said they agree or strongly agree that they have a great future ahead of them.

With a little help from their credit union, that vision for the future can be closer than it feels.

When members know you care, they stay. Combatting financial nihilism doesn’t start with service or rates — it starts with confidence and emotional connection. By creating a strategy around mission-aligned, data informed actions, credit unions are shifting member behaviors to improve their financial wellbeing. Learn more today.

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