Another Phase For Bond Traders

A snapshot of the bond market reveals bullish speculators are back.

Bond prices are higher Thursday morning, once again, with all the movement in the long-end of the market. I’ve searched high and low for a plausible reason why, and I’ve come up empty.

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The rally the past few days has been all in the longer-end of the market, and volume has been low. This tells us that bullish speculators are back, knowing they can push prices higher in a thin market.

Tomorrow’s jobs report might matter to them, but sometimes bullish traders power through a pile of facts with no regard to fundamentals. Bond traders are going through one of their phases. Maybe the moon and stars are guiding them or perhaps it’s the faint guiding light of greed.

Dwight Johnston is the chief economist of the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues and president of Dwight Johnston Economics. He is the author of a popular commentary site and is a frequent speaker at credit union board planning sessions and industry conferences.

August 3, 2017

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