It Was Only A Dream

November might have been a nightmare, but today’s Treasury rates aren’t far off 2015.

The 2-year and 5-year note yields are 25 basis points above the closing yields of Nov. 30, 2015. The 10-year yield is 19 basis points higher, and the 30-year bond yield was 2.98% one year ago versus 3.04% last night. Yes, November was a nightmare, but the whole year was just a dream sequence and you woke up in the same bed you went to sleep in one year ago. Just hope you didn’t wake up screaming.

On the economic front, Weekly Jobless Claims rose 17,000 to a still low 268,000. Traders haven’t been paying attention to the sterling economic data we’ve had this week, but a strong showing today from the National ISM manufacturing index might cause a reaction. Auto makers will be reporting November sales on the course of the day. After two surprisingly strong months, auto analysts are expecting a modest retreat in sales back to 17.5 million units on an annualized basis.

Read more about nonfarm payrolls, expectations for hourly wages, and Fed plans.

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Dwight Johnston is the chief economist of the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues and president of Dwight Johnston Economics. He is the author of a popular commentary site and is a frequent speaker at credit union board planning sessions and industry conferences.

December 1, 2016

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