The Circus Is In Town

Will the health care bill make it to the floor? And how will the market respond to Congressional pressuring?

House leaders and Trump administration officials have worked overtime to bring into the fold enough Republican holdouts on the health care replacement bill. Trump will continue that effort today by bringing some of them to the White House for face-to-face pressure.

The wheels in DC are spinning wildly, and the effort to bring the bill to the floor sometime today and pass it continues.

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The outcome is decidedly up in the air. The bill’s failure to pass would be a negative sign for the stock market and a blessing to the bond market. A passage of the bill would bring the reverse reactions. I doubt traders, much like many Congress members,have a clue what’s in it, but traders want the health care issue to go away so Congress can focus on what does matter to traders corporate tax reform.

I have no idea which way the pendulum will swing on this. We’ll all find out together tonight or tomorrow.

Dwight Johnston is the chief economist of the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues and president of Dwight Johnston Economics. He is the author of a popular commentary site and is a frequent speaker at credit union board planning sessions and industry conferences.

March 23, 2017

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