The Traders Are Listening

Expected news out of Europe has nonetheless piqued the interest of traders everywhere.

The European Central Bank has released the statement for its meeting today, and it took no action. This was expected. Traders will listen closely to the press conference with ECB president Mario Draghi, and his words might spark some action today.

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The stock market has a stalemate going. The number of bears and bulls are equal, and the huge base of the undecideds has not been convinced to join either faction sounds a little bit like the U.S. presidential election.

What will draw them to join either side isn’t clear. I don’t believe the Fed meeting later this month will be a catalyst for lasting movement. The undecideds might stay that way until the election is over or a clear-cut winner seems obvious.

One thing we do know from estimates from Bloomberg is that cash levels at major funds and in the accounts of individuals have grown to all-time records. When that cash starts to move, the markets will start to move. But the great unknown is if that cash will move into stocks or into bonds. It seems to be earmarked for stocks, with the pitiful yields in bonds, but investors might be left with little choice.

Read more about the bond market, the Fed’s Beige Book, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS report.

Dwight Johnston is the chief economist of the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues and president of Dwight Johnston Economics. He is the author of a popular commentary site and is a frequent speaker at credit union board planning sessions and industry conferences.

September 8, 2016

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