Chiefs Or 49ers? Callahan Bowl XVIII Digs Into The Data.

On February 11, the San Francisco 49ers will take on the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV. Although Vegas oddsmakers have some pretty good prediction models, Callahan & Associates has something they don’t: credit union performance data.

Last year, that data accurately predicted a Chiefs victory, but pulling off a repeat performance won’t be easy. The San Francisco 49ers are determined to avenge their 2020 Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs and take home their first Lombardi Trophy since 1995.

FIRST HALF: Share Draft Penetration Tests Fan Loyalty

Share draft penetration is a sure sign of credit union member loyalty, not unlike die-hard fans knowing the name of their team’s back-up punter. Members often use share drafts as a checking account if the credit union is their primary financial institution. In this contest, Kansas City credit unions reign supreme with a penetration rate that is a whole 6% higher. The last time these two teams went toe to toe in the big showdown, share draft penetration was dead even.

Chiefs — 1 | 49ers — 0

SECOND HALF: The Opex Ratio Defends ROA

If defense wins championships, then credit unions are wise to closely monitor the operating expense ratio. While a high operating expense ratio is not necessarily a bad thing, if operating expenses are not used wisely it can eat into margins. Effectively using expenses can set up a credit union to maximize revenue with respect to the mission. Like a good defense in football, a proper strategy for operating expenses can set up the offense nicely when possession turns over.

Both sides of this year’s game field top-notch squads adept at protecting the end zone. The Kansas City Chiefs made it to Vegas by keeping the Baltimore Ravens offense at bay. If the 49ers don’t want to repeat the Ravens’ mistakes, they’ll have to match KC’s strong defense.

As it plays out between the credit unions, Kansas City-area cooperatives will need to assess whether their high operating expense ratio is providing the value they need to best their West Coast foes.

Chiefs — 1 | 49ers — 1

OVERTIME: Efficiency On Offense, Efficiency In Revenue

On the other side of the gridiron, the offense that uses the ball most efficiently often comes out on top. This year, both teams rank in the top 10 in the percentage of drives that end in points. Kansas City is known for having two of the best offensive players the game has ever seen: quarterback Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce. On the other hand, San Francisco is led by dynamic running back Christian McCaffery and wide receiver Deebo Samuel.

According to Callahan’s Peer Suite prediction model, the transcendent greatness of KC’s quarterback does not translate to credit union performance off the field. Kansas City credit unions spend 82.5 cents to make $1, whereas Bay Area credit unions spend only 72 cents. Needless to say, Bay Area credit unions gain the lead when it comes to getting value for their expenses.

FINAL: Chiefs — 1 | 49ers — 2

So there it is. Using its proprietary tools and industry insight, Callahan calls the big game in favor of the San Francisco 49ers.

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