Last year’s NCAA men’s basketball tournament marked the first time since 2008 that all four No. 1 number one seeds made it to the Final Four. The feat brought with it concerns that March Madness was losing its magic.
This year is a different story.
Although the 2026 Final Four features top programs with leading seeds, this tournament has had its fair share of miracle moments — UConn over Duke — and upset wins — High Point, Iowa, Texas. Two teams facing off on Saturday both came into the bracket as No. 1 seeds: the Arizona Wildcats and Michigan Wolverines. On the other side of the bracket, No. 2 seed Connecticut Huskies is set to play No. 3 seed Illinois Fighting Illini.
Some might say the matchup between Arizona and Michigan will determine the champion, but we here at Callahan know it’s possible any team could walk away victorious. For help predicting a winner, Callahan’s analysts have turned to our proprietary model assessing credit union performance data. Digging into state-level performance separates the data from the noise and shows which team has the edge when it matters most.
Semi-Final 1: UConn Versus Illinois
In the first match-up, the blue-blooded UConn Huskies will take on the Illinois Fighting Illini.
Seeking their third title in four years, the Huskies hope to bring the magic that help them comeback from a 19-point deficit in the final seconds in their regional final. However, they face stiff competition in Illinois, led by freshman Keaton Wagler and the styled “Balkan Bloc.” The Illini’s size is intimidating, but UConn has experience in championship-winning coach Dan Hurley and seniors Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed Jr. In a tough game to predict, Callahan turns to the data of each state’s credit unions.
Sports teams thrive off of their fans’ energy, especially college teams in a single-elimination tournament. As any player would attest, the fans are the lifeblood of the game. During March Madness, a team wants to attract new fans while rewarding those who have been there all year.
Sound familiar? Credit unions also need members to survive and must bring in new members even as they work to deepen relationships with members they already serve. Thanks to the support of their faithful, Illinois punches their ticket to the National Championship in a close win.
MEMBER METRICS
FOR CONNECTICUT AND ILLINOIS CREDIT UNIONS | DATA AS OF 12.31.25
SOURCE: CALLAHAN & ASSOCIATES
Semi-Final 1 Winner: Illinois
Semi-Final 2: Arizona Versus Michigan
The next game promises to be 40 minutes of titanic proportions as the tournament’s two surviving No. 1 seeds go head-to-head.
Both the Arizona Wildcats and the Michigan Wolverines are excellent on the offensive side of the ball, with imposing size to boot. Led by coach Tommy Lloyd, the Wildcats have enjoyed a dominant season and their best tourney run since 2001, when they last made the Final Four. However, getting to the championship game won’t be an easy feat. Big Blue, led by coach Dusty May and senior Yaxel Lendeborg, is one of the best teams in the nation.
In the first half, Arizona takes a hefty lead over Michigan, with credit unions in the Grand Canyon State reporting member growth that more than doubles their peers in the Great Lakes State. But Arizona gives it all back down the stretch with average member relationship and loans per member. In another close call, Michigan edges ahead, setting up the country for a Midwestern national championship.
MEMBER METRICS
FOR ARIZONA AND MICHIGAN CREDIT UNIONS | DATA AS OF 12.31.25
SOURCE: CALLAHAN & ASSOCIATES
Semi-Final 2 Winner: Michigan
National Championship: Michigan Versus Illinois
It all comes down to a battle between the Big 10. Which team will take home the hardware?
For a basketball team to succeed, it must win in the margins. It’s this kind of successful formula that can sustain a team for years to come. Similarly, for a credit union to develop a solid return on assets, it needs to spend efficiently.
MARGIN PERFORMANCE
FOR MICHIGAN AND ILLINOIS CREDIT UNIONS | DATA AS OF 12.31.25
SOURCE: CALLAHAN & ASSOCIATES
Credit union performance data suggests a basketball classic for the ages.
Credit unions in Michigan initially lead with a higher net interest margin, beating Illinois by half a percentage point. But when it comes to minimizing expenses, Illinois credit unions claw back in the second half. In championship overtime thriller, Michigan ultimately bests Illinois with a decisive ROA lead of 34 basis points.
Winner: Michigan Wolverines
And just like that, credit union performance data predicts the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament will wrap up the 2025-26 season with the University of Michigan taking home its second national championship and its first since 1989.