Historical holiday sales and 2023 forecast
FOR U.S. CREDIT UNIONS | DATA AS OF 11.02.23
© Callahan & Associates | CreditUnions.com
- Americans are expected to fork over nearly $1 billion in holiday spending this year, according to a forecast from the National Retail Federation. The group expects consumers to spend between $957.3 and $966.6 billion this year, an increase of more than 64% from a decade ago.
- That figure represents relatively modest year-over-year growth of 3-4%, compared to the 9% average growth rate of the past three years. Depending on how things shake out, this could be the lowest pace of spending growth since 2018, which reached just 1.7%.
- Rising prices and tighter budgets are impacting how consumers shop. Nearly three-quarters of respondents — 73% — in a PriceWaterhouseCoopers study say they expect prices to be higher this year; more than half — 51% — say they expect to pay higher shipping costs.
- All of that makes it even more likely that consumers will turn to their credit cards to cover this year’s holiday costs. Credit card lending was up by more than 19% year-over-year during the third quarter. For that period, credit unions captured 6.4% of total market share for revolving debt. That’s up from 5% 10 years ago and just 20 basis points below the industry’s mortgage market share.
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