The Final Four of the 2023 the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament is here, and to say this year’s participants are different from past years would be a massive understatement.
This is the first tournament since 2011 in which no No. 1 seeded team has made the Final Four. Even more improbable, this is the first tournament ever where no top three team made the semi-final round. UConn — a number four seed this year — is the only traditional basketball powerhouse left in the tournament. It is joined by Miami, a five-seeded school known more for its football. Longer-shot San Diego State — a five seed — and Florida Atlantic University — a nine seed — round out the Final Four. The two latter schools are both new to playing this deep into March.
With so many upsets, what better way to predict the outcome than with something else a little unconventional? Here at Callahan, we use our analytical prowess — with an assist from Peer Suite — to predict the outcome of the semi-finals based on the three keys to the game.
- Defense pays dividends, and dividends make a difference.
- In order to win, a team needs to share the rock.
- A well-coached team is operationally efficient.
Semi-final #1: Florida Atlantic Vs. San Diego State
Two mid-majors that only dreamt of this moment coming into the tournament square off in what is sure to be a high-octane match up. With California and Florida standing comfortably as two of the biggest states in the United States, local credit unions pack a punch right up there with the basketball teams that represent them.
California takes a commanding lead in the first half, crushing Florida in dividends per member. But Florida dominates in share growth, leading to a tied game going into the last minute. At crunch time, a team has to operate efficiently and limit cost(ly turnovers), and California credit unions have a clear lead in their ability to manage each dollar of assets with minimal cost.
Winner: San Diego State
Semi-final #2: Miami Vs. Connecticut
UConn, a traditional basketball powerhouse, matches up against Miami, a program without much history but with a coach who already has a Final Four on his resume. On this stage, history matters, but does a flashy up-and -comer have enough talent to overcome? Let’s find out.
In this classic match-up, Connecticut credit unions jump out with a slight lead, barely edging out Florida in dividends. Florida credit unions battle back in the second half with strong share growth buoyed by population growth that outstrips their northeastern competitors. In the end, however, Connecticut credit unions grind out a razor-thin victory with their lower operating expense ratio.
Winner: UConn
Final: Connecticut Vs. San Diego State
When building a championship college basketball team, there are three things every team needs: limited turnovers on dribble drives, a bench that is an asset, and interest in the program. Likewise, when building a high-caliber cooperative, credit unions must minimize auto delinquency, grow assets, and increase interest income.
Let’s see how the finalists stack up.
Connecticut credit unions jump out to an early lead with their low auto delinquency, which is a full 8 basis points lower than their California competitors. But California credit unions come back strong in the second half, scoring higher on both asset and interest income.
National Champion: San Diego State
There you have it! The official Callahan prediction: San Diego State will take the crown in March Madness. Surfers rejoice!
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